Ganesh Chaturthi, The Indian festival celebrated to preach Lord Ganesha who known for wisdom. Majorly, the lists of festivals come in the second half of our Indian calendar and being an investor there is always a question arises in the mind that is there any impact occur on a festive day.
Though on this Thursday, all major markets operations like domestic stocks, BSE, NSE and commodity markets will remain closed. The festival celebrated in all states but majorly this festival is celebrated in Mumbai by all religions so on this auspicious day BSE(Bombay Stock exchange) always remain closed.
Looking from the investor’s point of view, It is important to do a historical measurement to evaluate the effect on the share market index of India before and after Ganesh Chaturthi. One tends to think if more money should be invested to reap more profits.
What historical Data Signify? Read below :
| Year | Nifty |
| 2009 | +228 |
| 2010 | +370 |
| 2011 | +222 |
| 2012 | +66 |
| 2013 | +538 |
| 2014 | +209 |
| 2015 | +151 |
| 2016 | +174 |
Here, the past results in Nifty from 2009-2016 defines that during Ganesh Chaturthi always performs well. However, it is just an indicator and there is no surety that the markets will always show positive feedback.
Investelite Research advises you to compare each current prediction with a prediction on previous time slots. Investors must focus on Stock Fundamental and technicals. Here a series of daily returns from the historical closing prices have been generated. The calculation based on the two-return series is as follows :
Rt = [(P1-P0)/P0]*100
where Rt=daily return at time t
P1=Daily closing price at time t
P0=Daily closing price at time t-1
In daily return series, separate return series generated for Ganesh Chaturthi.
Statistics & Interpretation:
Descriptive Statistics is the key to analyze the characteristics. By calculating the mean and standard deviation are two initial steps of analysis. Paired Sample t-test has been carried out in order to measure the influence of festival on the return of Nifty & Sensex. We can see the analysis done for data taken January 2003 to December 2013 for both Nifty and Sensex and we can infer from it.
| Sensex | Nifty | ||||
| Mean | t-value | signific | Mean | t-value | signific |
| -0.182 | -0.751 | 0.455 | -0.158 | -659 | -0.512 |
The above p-value in the table inferences for the year 2003-2013 indicates the p-value is greater than 0.1 which means Ganesha Festival don’t influence the mean return of market significantly.
Pre-festival and Post festival returns have been arranged and you can analyse it and infer from there also:
| Before festival Mean | After festival Mean | Correlation | Signific |
| 0.0037 | 0.0022 | -0.308 | 0.698 |
Overall looking at the above, it is clear that the retail investors should not think too much before investing with regards to Ganesh Chaturthi.
Investelite Research wishes you to “keep trading shaurya by saying Ganpati Bappa Morya!”
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